Caddy won't start, strace shows it's waiting for a mutex of some sort

Then that was probably why the renewal broke.

The guide thingy i was referring to is from Starting with systemd: Failed at step NAMESPACE spawning /usr/local/bin/caddy: No such file or directory - #7 by Beluga
( caddy-AUR/README.md at master · klingtnet/caddy-AUR · GitHub )

Permissions are root:root:-rwxr-xr-x which look normal to me.